Módulo 4: Evaluación Económica del Proyecto
Módulo 4
Descripción del Proyecto
La planta de la empresa EMPRESA DE ENSAMBLAJE DE PATINETAS S.A.S. enfrenta actualmente limitaciones en su capacidad operativa, lo que restringe su potencial de crecimiento. Este proyecto tiene como objetivo automatizar parte del proceso de ensamblaje de tres modelos de patinetas eléctricas:
- 500W
- 800W
- 2000W
La empresa MEP MEP RAIDERS propone optimizar indicadores clave de desempeño, como el OEE (Overall Equipment Effectiveness), mediante la implementación de un sistema de automatización que incluye:
- Traslado automatizado de componentes a las estaciones de ensamblaje mediante bandas transportadoras.
- Inflado automatizado de neumáticos mediante una celda robotizada.
- Ensamblaje final asistido por un robot colaborativo.
- Integración de un sistema SCADA para el monitoreo en tiempo real del flujo de trabajo en la planta.
Estas mejoras permitirán reducir los tiempos de ciclo, mejorar la calidad del producto final y aumentar la productividad global de la planta, con un retorno estimado de la inversión en menos de nueve meses.
Inversion
Inversion inicial
El valor total del proyecto es de $951.747.674 COP, distribuido así:
| CONCEPTO | TOTAL |
|---|---|
| Celda Róbotica | $ 80.044.824,41 |
| Equipos/Componentes para la automatización | $ 434.411.341,68 |
| Instalación/Importación/Otros costos | $ 257.228.083,05 |
| Honorarios Equipo de Ingenieros | $ 49.789.090,91 |
| Licencias/Software | $ 61.634.141,16 |
| TOTAL INVERSIÓN INICIAL | $ 883.107.481,22 |
Celda Róbotica
| ID | DESCRIPCIÓN | PRECIO UNITARIO (USD) | PRECIO UNITARIO (COP) | CANTIDAD | TOTAL (COP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robot inflador | $ 5.799,00 | $ 23.348.339,73 | 1 | $ 23.348.339,73 |
| 2 | Robot cargador | $ 8.899,00 | $ 35.829.776,73 | 1 | $ 35.829.776,73 |
| 3 | DC Control Box | $ 549,00 | $ 2.210.422,23 | 2 | $ 4.420.844,46 |
| 4 | 3m Cables | $ 90,00 | $ 362.364,30 | 2 | $ 724.728,60 |
| 5 | X-ARM Gripper | $ 2.199,00 | $ 8.853.767,73 | 1 | $ 8.853.767,73 |
| 6 | Compresor 2hp | $ 199,68 | $ 803.965,59 | 1 | $ 803.965,59 |
| 7 | transducer Sensor (0-10v Output, 0-5bar) | $ 82,79 | $ 333.334,89 | 1 | $ 333.334,89 |
| 8 | PERIMETER PATROL Security Barrier: 6 ft | $ 246,81 | $ 993.723,70 | 4 | $ 3.974.894,79 |
| 9 | Sensor de barrera 100Mts | $ 74,55 | $ 300.158,43 | 3 | $ 900.475,29 |
| 10 | MHM-32TFD1-M9NLS | $ 212,28 | $ 854.696,60 | 1 | $ 854.696,60 |
Equipos/Componentes para la automatización
| ID | DESCRIPCIÓN | PRECIO (USD) | PRECIO (COP) | CANTIDAD | TOTAL (COP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fuente de alimentación 24VDC-240W | $304,67 | $1.226.683,68 | 2 | $2.453.367,36 |
| 2 | PLC 48 I/O | $4.190,00 | $16.870.071,30 | 2 | $33.740.142,60 |
| 3 | PLC 32 I/O | $3.500,00 | $14.091.945,00 | 1 | $14.091.945,00 |
| 4 | Tarjeta de Entradas Digitales | $148,00 | $595.887,96 | 3 | $1.787.664 |
| 5 | Tarjeta de Salidas Digitales | $150,00 | $603.940,50 | 4 | $2.415.762 |
| 6 | Tarjeta de Entradas Analógicas en corriente | $200,00 | $805.254,00 | 1 | $805.254 |
| 7 | Tarjeta de Salidas Analógicas en corriente | $200,00 | $805.254,00 | 1 | $805.254 |
| 8 | Switch Ethernet 2 puertos F.O. Multimodo SC, 4 puertos RJ-45 | $599,00 | $2.411.735,73 | 3 | $7.235.207 |
| 9 | Protección DPS Corriente Alterna 110VAC Tipo II | $120,00 | $483.152,40 | 2 | $966.305 |
| 10 | Protección DPS Para red Ethernet | $40,00 | $161.050,80 | 2 | $322.102 |
| 11 | Protección de empalme para fusión de fibra 40 mm | $1,00 | $4.026,27 | 8 | $32.210 |
| 12 | Firewall - VNP | $200,00 | $805.254,00 | 1 | $805.254 |
| 13 | Módem Satelital Banda Ku | $1.000,00 | $4.026.270,00 | 1 | $4.026.270 |
| 14 | Interruptor de puerta | $50,00 | $201.313,50 | 2 | $402.627 |
| 15 | Lámpara 5w 100-240VAC | $20,00 | $80.525,40 | 2 | $161.051 |
| 16 | Higrostato mecánico ajustable de 35 a 95%HR | $150,00 | $603.940,50 | 2 | $1.207.881 |
| 17 | Pantalla Táctil 5.7" HMI | $3.200,00 | $12.884.064,00 | 1 | $12.884.064 |
| 18 | Selector Modo de Operación Local - Remoto | $40,00 | $161.050,80 | 1 | $161.051 |
| 19 | Selector Compuerta a Operar Modo Manual | $40,00 | $161.050,80 | 1 | $161.051 |
| 20 | Baliza Acústica - Señal de Alarma | $150,00 | $603.940,50 | 1 | $603.941 |
| 21 | Resistencia Calefactora 49 W ‐ 50 W | $100,00 | $402.627,00 | 2 | $805.254 |
| 22 | Tablero X:800 Y:1000 Z:300 CS: Plástico | $200,00 | $805.254,00 | 2 | $1.610.508 |
| 23 | Bloque de conexión XPS1 Bornas de 2.5mm² - Entrada de Energía 110VAC | $1,00 | $4.026,27 | 4 | $16.105 |
| 24 | Bloque de bornas conexión a tierra de 2,5mm² | $1,00 | $4.026,27 | 2 | $8.053 |
| 25 | Bloque de conexión XPS2 Bornas dobles de 2.5mm² - 110 VAC - Calefacción, Iluminación | $1,00 | $4.026,27 | 4 | $16.105 |
| 26 | Bloque de conexión XPS3 Bornas dobles de 2.5mm² - Distribución de Energía 24VDC | $1,00 | $4.026,27 | 10 | $40.263 |
| 27 | Bloque de conexión XDI1 Bornas dobles de 2.5mm² - Entradas Digitales | $1,00 | $4.026,27 | 30 | $120.788 |
| 28 | Bloque de conexión XD01 Bornas dobles de 2.5mm² - Salidas Digitales | $1,00 | $4.026,27 | 20 | $80.525 |
| 29 | Bloque de conexión XRS1 Bornas dobles de 2.5mm² - Red RS-485 | $1,00 | $4.026,27 | 2 | $8.053 |
| 30 | Bloque de conexión XAI1 Bornas dobles de 2.5mm² - Entradas Analógicas | $1,00 | $4.026,27 | 3 | $12.079 |
| 31 | Bloque de conexión XAO1 Bornas dobles de 2.5mm² - Salidas Analógicas | $1,00 | $4.026,27 | 3 | $12.079 |
| 32 | Und. Borna freno / escuadra final | $1,00 | $4.026,27 | 43 | $173.130 |
| 33 | Bloque de bornas portafusible 5 x 20mm | $0,50 | $2.013,14 | 43 | $86.565 |
| 34 | Fusible de 5x20mm - 0,1 Amperios distribución 24V | $0,50 | $2.013,14 | 3 | $6.039 |
| 35 | Fusible de 5x20mm - 0,5 Amperios distribución 24V | $0,50 | $2.013,14 | 13 | $26.171 |
| 36 | Fusible de 5x20mm - 1,6 Amperios distribución 24V | $0,50 | $2.013,14 | 2 | $4.026 |
| 37 | Fusible de 5x20mm - 5 Amperios distribución 24V | $0,50 | $2.013,14 | 1 | $2.013 |
| 38 | Fusible de 5x20mm - 0,1 Amperios Entradas digitales digitales | $0,50 | $2.013,14 | 24 | $48.315 |
| 39 | Barra de tierra principal | $0,50 | $2.013,14 | 2 | $4.026 |
| 40 | Und. Puente entre bornas de Insertar / 2.5mm² 10 PIN | $0,50 | $2.013,14 | 7,8 | $15.702 |
| 51 | Und. Riel DIN/Omega troquelado 35 mm - 1m | $10,00 | $40.262,70 | 6 | $241.576 |
| 52 | Metro de Cable utp Categoria 6 Azul | $2,00 | $8.052,54 | 8 | $64.420 |
| 53 | Cable flexible 12 AWG Negro 105°C /600V 100 mtr | $50,00 | $201.313,50 | 0,5 | $100.657 |
| 54 | Cable flexible 12 AWG Blanco 105°C /600V 100 mtr | $50,00 | $201.313,50 | 0,5 | $100.657 |
| 55 | Cable flexible 12 AWG Verde 105°C /600V 100 mtr | $50,00 | $201.313,50 | 0,02 | $4.026 |
| 56 | Cable flexible 16 AWG Rojo 105°C /600V 100 mtr | $50,00 | $201.313,50 | 0,6 | $120.788 |
| 57 | Cable flexible 16 AWG Azul 105°C /600V 100 mtr | $50,00 | $201.313,50 | 0,5 | $100.657 |
| 58 | Cable flexible 16 AWG Verde 105°C /600V 100 mtr | $50,00 | $201.313,50 | 0,1 | $20.131 |
| 59 | Terminales en pin tubular, canutillos o ferrules aisladas en vinilo 12AWG X 100 und | $10,00 | $40.262,70 | 0,68 | $27.379 |
| 60 | Terminales en pin tubular, canutillos o ferrules aisladas en vinilo 16AWG X 100 und | $10,00 | $40.262,70 | 0,68 | $27.379 |
| 61 | Terminal de ojo M4 x 1/4 (100u) | $10,00 | $40.262,70 | 0,68 | $27.379 |
| 62 | Remaches 3/16 x 1/4 (x100u) | $10,00 | $40.262,70 | 0,68 | $27.379 |
| 63 | Remache cabeza grande POP de 3/16 X 5/8 (100u) | $10,00 | $40.262,70 | 0,68 | $27.379 |
| 64 | Tornillo 5/16 x 1/2" con arandela (100u) | $10,00 | $40.262,70 | 0,5 | $20.131 |
| 65 | Tornillo 1/8 x 3/4" con tuerca (100u) | $10,00 | $40.262,70 | 0,5 | $20.131 |
| 66 | Tornillo phillips 3/16 X 1/2 (100u) | $10,00 | $40.262,70 | 0,5 | $20.131 |
| 67 | Tornillo phillips 1/4 X 1/2 con arandelas y guasa (100u) | $10,00 | $40.262,70 | 0,5 | $20.131 |
| 68 | Arandela para tornillo phillips 3/16 (100u) | $10,00 | $40.262,70 | 0,5 | $20.131 |
| 69 | Arandela para tornillo phillips 1/4 (100u) | $10,00 | $40.262,70 | 0,5 | $20.131 |
| 70 | Guasa para tornillo phillips 3/16 (100u) | $10,00 | $40.262,70 | 0,5 | $20.131 |
| 71 | Guasa para tornillo phillips 1/4 (100u) | $10,00 | $40.262,70 | 0,5 | $20.131 |
| 72 | Motorreductor (actuador rotativo) | $1.000,00 | $4.026.270,00 | 22 | $88.577.940 |
| 73 | Sensor fotoeléctrico difuso | $300,00 | $1.207.881,00 | 11 | $13.286.691 |
| 74 | Robot UR3e | $24.000,00 | $96.630.480,00 | 1 | $96.630.480 |
| 75 | Banda transportadora 2m | $4.000,00 | $16.105.080,00 | 9 | $144.945.720 |
Honorarios Equipo de Ingenieros
| Honorarios Equipo de Ingenieros | Precio x hora (COP) | Cantidad de Horas | Precio total (COP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Honorarios Ingeniero 1 - Celda Robótica | $ 76.364 | 128 | $ 9.774.545 |
| Honorarios Ingeniero 2 - Automatización | $ 76.364 | 128 | $ 9.774.545 |
| Honorarios Ingeniero 3 - Automatización | $ 76.364 | 128 | $ 9.774.545 |
| Honorarios Ingeniero 4 - Automatización | $ 76.364 | 128 | $ 9.774.545 |
| Honorarios Ingeniero 5 - Desarrollador Web | $ 76.364 | 140 | $ 10.690.909 |
| TOTAL | 652 | $ 49.789.090,91 | |
Licencias/Software
| Licencia/Software | Duración | Costo (USD) | Costo (COP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Licencia Ignition | Licencia perpetua por gateway | $ 1.100 | $ 4.428.897 |
| Cirrus Link MQTT Engine Module | Licencia perpetua por gateway | $ 2.000 | $ 8.052.540 |
| Cirrus Link MQTT Distributor Module | Licencia perpetua por gateway | $ 3.125 | $ 12.582.094 |
| Studio 5000 Standard Edition | Licencia 1 año por usuario | $ 1.712 | $ 6.892.974 |
| Licencia Siemens NX X Design Standard | Licencia 1 año | $ 7.371 | $ 29.677.636 |
| TOTAL | $ 15.308 | $ 61.634.141,16 | |
Costos
Costos de Ensamblaje por Patineta
Se analizaron los componentes individuales necesarios para cada modelo. Los componentes necesarios para el ensamblaje de las patinetas fueron cotizados en dólares estadounidenses.
Costo Base por Modelo (USD)
- Patineta 500W: $929,71
- Patineta 800W: $1.615,24
- Patineta 2000W: $1.705,33
Supuestos para la Proyección
- Se asumió un incremento anual del 1 % en el costo base de cada modelo.
- El costo base de cada patineta fue convertido a pesos colombianos (COP) utilizando la Tasa de Mercado Representativa (TMR).
- La TMR se proyectó para los cinco años de duración del proyecto con base en los registros históricos del Banco de la República.
- Los costos de ventas se estiman como el costo total de los componentes de la patineta multiplicado por un factor de 1.2 (para contemplar costos asociados a importación).
| AÑO | MES | TMR (COP/USD) | Incremento Componentes | Patineta 500W | Patineta 800W | Patineta 2000W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | $4.211,10 | 1% | $3.954.261 | $6.869.939 | $7.253.136 |
| 1 | 2 | $4.244,07 | 1% | $3.985.220 | $6.923.726 | $7.309.923 |
| 1 | 3 | $4.276,80 | 1% | $4.015.954 | $6.977.121 | $7.366.297 |
| 1 | 4 | $4.316,43 | 1% | $4.053.167,14 | $7.041.773,66 | $7.434.555,67 |
| 1 | 5 | $4.353,80 | 1% | $4.088.257,91 | $7.102.738,64 | $7.498.921,21 |
| 1 | 5 | $4.353,80 | 1% | $4.088.257,91 | $7.102.738,64 | $7.498.921,21 |
| 1 | 5 | $4.353,80 | 1% | $4.088.257,91 | $7.102.738,64 | $7.498.921,21 |
| 1 | 5 | $4.353,80 | 1% | $4.088.257,91 | $7.102.738,64 | $7.498.921,21 |
| 1 | 5 | $4.353,80 | 1% | $4.088.257,91 | $7.102.738,64 | $7.498.921,21 |
| 1 | 5 | $4.353,80 | 1% | $4.088.257,91 | $7.102.738,64 | $7.498.921,21 |
| 1 | 5 | $4.353,80 | 1% | $4.088.257,91 | $7.102.738,64 | $7.498.921,21 |
| 1 | 5 | $4.353,80 | 1% | $4.088.257,91 | $7.102.738,64 | $7.498.921,21 |
| 1 | 5 | $4.353,80 | 1% | $4.088.257,91 | $7.102.738,64 | $7.498.921,21 |
| 1 | 5 | $4.353,80 | 1% | $4.088.257,91 | $7.102.738,64 | $7.498.921,21 |
| 1 | 6 | $4.393,54 | 1% | $4.125.574,13 | $7.167.570,02 | $7.567.368,80 |
| 1 | 7 | $4.431,92 | 1% | $4.161.613,30 | $7.230.182,70 | $7.633.473,95 |
| 1 | 8 | $4.474,43 | 1% | $4.201.530,58 | $7.299.533,02 | $7.706.692,55 |
| 1 | 9 | $4.514,74 | 1% | $4.239.382,03 | $7.365.294,28 | $7.776.121,90 |
| 1 | 10 | $4.551,84 | 1% | $4.274.219,27 | $7.425.818,79 | $7.840.022,39 |
| 1 | 11 | $4.597,40 | 1% | $4.317.000,53 | $7.500.144,85 | $7.918.494,27 |
| 1 | 12 | $4.641,58 | 1% | $4.358.485,95 | $7.572.219,58 | $7.994.589,25 |
| 2 | 1 | $4.688,28 | 2% | $4.445.925,18 | $7.724.132,21 | $8.154.975,39 |
| 2 | 2 | $4.728,97 | 2% | $4.484.511,76 | $7.791.170,64 | $8.225.753,15 |
| 2 | 3 | $4.768,78 | 2% | $4.522.263,83 | $7.856.759,23 | $8.295.000,20 |
| 2 | 4 | $4.816,40 | 2% | $4.567.422,17 | $7.935.215,12 | $8.377.832,27 |
| 2 | 5 | $4.861,62 | 2% | $4.610.304,58 | $8.009.716,92 | $8.456.489,68 |
| 2 | 6 | $4.909,61 | 2% | $4.655.813,80 | $8.088.782,39 | $8.539.965,34 |
| 2 | 7 | $4.956,09 | 2% | $4.699.891,07 | $8.165.360,09 | $8.620.814,45 |
| 2 | 8 | $5.007,13 | 2% | $4.748.292,62 | $8.249.450,57 | $8.709.595,40 |
| 2 | 9 | $5.056,08 | 2% | $4.794.712 | $8.330.097 | $8.794.740 |
| 2 | 10 | $5.101,65 | 2% | $4.837.926 | $8.405.176 | $8.874.007 |
| 2 | 11 | $5.156,15 | 2% | $4.889.609 | $8.494.967 | $8.968.806 |
| 2 | 12 | $5.209,14 | 2% | $4.939.859 | $8.582.270 | $9.060.979 |
| 3 | 1 | $5.265,09 | 3% | $5.041.867 | $8.759.493 | $9.248.088 |
| 3 | 2 | $5.315,11 | 3% | $5.089.767 | $8.842.711 | $9.335.947 |
| 3 | 3 | $5.365,17 | 3% | $5.137.704 | $8.925.996 | $9.423.877 |
| 3 | 4 | $5.422,34 | 3% | $5.192.451 | $9.021.109 | $9.524.296 |
| 3 | 5 | $5.476,95 | 3% | $5.244.745 | $9.111.963 | $9.620.218 |
| 3 | 6 | $5.534,80 | 3% | $5.300.143 | $9.208.208 | $9.721.831 |
| 3 | 6 | $5.534,80 | 3% | $5.300.143,08 | $9.208.208,46 | $9.721.831,70 |
| 3 | 7 | $5.590,97 | 3% | $5.353.931,66 | $9.301.658,10 | $9.820.493,85 |
| 3 | 8 | $5.652,20 | 3% | $5.412.565,71 | $9.403.526,03 | $9.928.043,86 |
| 3 | 9 | $5.711,50 | 3% | $5.469.351,59 | $9.502.183,03 | $10.032.203,83 |
| 3 | 10 | $5.767,20 | 3% | $5.522.690,10 | $9.594.850,73 | $10.130.040,43 |
| 3 | 11 | $5.832,39 | 3% | $5.585.116,26 | $9.703.306,88 | $10.244.546,14 |
| 3 | 12 | $5.895,90 | 3% | $5.645.933,65 | $9.808.968,03 | $10.356.100,95 |
| 4 | 1 | $5.962,90 | 4% | $5.765.530,87 | $10.016.750,37 | $10.575.473,15 |
| 4 | 2 | $6.023,95 | 4% | $5.824.560,15 | $10.119.304,94 | $10.683.748,09 |
| 4 | 3 | $6.082,43 | 4% | $5.881.104,49 | $10.217.542,30 | $10.787.465,02 |
| 4 | 4 | $6.151,13 | 4% | $5.947.530,55 | $10.332.947,68 | $10.909.307,58 |
| 4 | 5 | $6.217,06 | 4% | $6.011.278,30 | $10.443.699,89 | $11.026.237,42 |
| 4 | 6 | $6.286,79 | 4% | $6.078.700,27 | $10.560.835,51 | $11.149.906,73 |
| 4 | 7 | $6.354,64 | 4% | $6.144.304,47 | $10.674.813,03 | $11.270.241,78 |
| 4 | 8 | $6.428,15 | 4% | $6.215.381,32 | $10.798.298,47 | $11.400.615,09 |
| 4 | 9 | $6.499,90 | 4% | $6.284.756,43 | $10.918.827,38 | $11.527.866,97 |
| 4 | 10 | $6.567,83 | 4% | $6.350.437,98 | $11.032.939,28 | $11.648.343,90 |
| 4 | 11 | $6.645,90 | 4% | $6.425.923,90 | $11.164.084,81 | $11.786.804,58 |
| 4 | 12 | $6.722,09 | 4% | $6.499.592,05 | $11.292.072,23 | $11.921.930,99 |
| 5 | 1 | $6.802,41 | 5% | $6.640.496,32 | $11.536.872,39 | $12.180.385,82 |
| 5 | 2 | $6.877,08 | 5% | $6.713.388,99 | $11.663.512,55 | $12.314.089,82 |
| 5 | 3 | $6.948,07 | 5% | $6.782.689,26 | $11.783.911,43 | $12.441.204,41 |
| 5 | 4 | $7.030,86 | 5% | $6.863.508,66 | $11.924.323,09 | $12.589.448,07 |
| 5 | 5 | $7.110,64 | 5% | $6.941.389,70 | $12.059.629,80 | $12.732.302,03 |
| 5 | 6 | $7.194,90 | 5% | $7.023.644,11 | $12.202.534,57 | $12.883.177,87 |
| 5 | 7 | $7.277,04 | 5% | $7.103.828,98 | $12.341.843,83 | $13.030.257,64 |
| 5 | 8 | $7.365,57 | 5% | $7.190.251,76 | $12.491.990,52 | $13.188.779,33 |
| 5 | 9 | $7.452,58 | 5% | $7.275.190,71 | $12.639.559,28 | $13.344.579,31 |
| 5 | 10 | $7.535,47 | 5% | $7.356.107,73 | $12.780.140,54 | $13.493.002,03 |
| 5 | 11 | $7.629,29 | 5% | $7.447.694,59 | $12.939.259,06 | $13.660.995,99 |
| 5 | 12 | $7.720,99 | 5% | $7.537.211,91 | $13.094.782,05 | $13.825.193,88 |
Ventas
Proyecciones de Ventas
Para la cantidad de ventas esperadas, se utiliza los datos obtenidos en gestión de producción en base al estudio de mercado.
Supuestos
- Tamaño inicial del mercado: 35.000 unidades
- Crecimiento del mercado: 5% anual
- Crecimiento de participación: 1% anual
- Distribución esperada de ventas:
- 50% para modelo 500W
- 25% para modelo 800W
- 25% para modelo 2000W
| AÑO | VOLUMEN DEL MERCADO (ANUAL) | PARTICIPACIÓN EN EL MERCADO (ANUAL) | VENTAS ESPERADAS (ANUAL) | VENTAS ESPERADAS (MENSUAL) | PATINETA 500W (ANUAL) | PATINETA 800W (ANUAL) | PATINETA 2000W (ANUAL) | PATINETA 500W (MENSUAL) | PATINETA 800W (MENSUAL) | PATINETA 2000W (MENSUAL) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36.750 | 5% | 1.838 | 153 | 919 | 460 | 460 | 77 | 38 | 38 |
| 2 | 38.588 | 6% | 2.315 | 193 | 1.158 | 579 | 579 | 97 | 48 | 48 |
| 3 | 40.517 | 7% | 2.836 | 236 | 1.418 | 709 | 709 | 118 | 59 | 59 |
| 4 | 42.543 | 8% | 3.403 | 284 | 1.702 | 851 | 851 | 142 | 71 | 71 |
| 5 | 44.670 | 9% | 4.020 | 335 | 2.010 | 1.005 | 1.005 | 168 | 84 | 84 |
Precio de venta
El precio de venta sin IVA de cada patineta se estableció como el 1,2 del costo de los componentes.
Supuestos
- Tamaño inicial del mercado: 35.000 unidades
- Crecimiento del mercado: 5% anual
- Crecimiento de participación: 1% anual
- Distribución esperada de ventas:
- 50% para modelo 500W
- 25% para modelo 800W
- 25% para modelo 2000W
| AÑO | VOLUMEN DEL MERCADO | PARTICIPACIÓN EN EL MERCADO | VENTAS ESPERADAS | VENTAS ESPERADAS (MENSUAL) | PATINETA 500W | PATINETA 800W | PATINETA 2000W | PATINETA 500W (MENSUAL) | PATINETA 800W (MENSUAL) | PATINETA 2000W (MENSUAL) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36.750 | 5% | 1.838 | 153 | 919 | 460 | 460 | 77 | 38 | 38 |
| 2 | 38.588 | 6% | 2.315 | 193 | 1.158 | 579 | 579 | 97 | 48 | 48 |
| 3 | 40.517 | 7% | 2.836 | 236 | 1.418 | 709 | 709 | 118 | 59 | 59 |
| 4 | 42.543 | 8% | 3.403 | 284 | 1.702 | 851 | 851 | 142 | 71 | 71 |
| 5 | 44.670 | 9% | 4.020 | 335 | 2.010 | 1.005 | 1.005 | 168 | 84 | 84 |
Costos
Costos Operacionales
Se calcularon los costos operativos anuales, los cuales incluyen:
- Nómina de 8 operarios (salario minimo legal vigente proyectado a 5 años, con prestaciones)
- Arriendo (se asume aumento del 10% anual)
- Servicios públicos ( se asume aumento del 10% anual)
| Año | Salario mínimo | Auxilio de transporte | Pensión | Salud | Nómina de un operario | Pago nómina 8 operarios | Arriendo | Servicios públicos | Total gastos operacionales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1.557.389,60 | $214.822,40 | $62.295,58 | $62.295,58 | $1.896.803,17 | $15.174.425,34 | $7.000.000,00 | $1.000.000 | $23.174.425,34 |
| 2 | $1.714.550,00 | $238.014,40 | $68.582,00 | $68.582,00 | $2.089.728,40 | $16.717.827,20 | $7.700.000,00 | $1.100.000 | $25.517.827,20 |
| 3 | $1.821.500,00 | $261.206,40 | $72.860,00 | $72.860,00 | $2.228.426,40 | $17.827.411,20 | $8.470.000,00 | $1.210.000 | $27.507.411,20 |
| 4 | $1.941.742,40 | $284.398,40 | $77.669,70 | $77.669,70 | $2.381.480,19 | $19.051.841,54 | $9.317.000,00 | $1.331.000 | $29.699.841,54 |
| 5 | $2.147.246,53 | $307.590,40 | $85.889,86 | $85.889,86 | $2.626.616,66 | $21.012.933,25 | $10.248.700,00 | $1.464.100 | $32.725.733,25 |
Caja
Flujos de caja
Se halló el flujo de caja a partir del cruce de:
- Costos de componentes
- Gastos operacionales
- Ventas proyectadas
Adicionlmente, se asumió una tasa impositiva del 35%.
| AÑO | MES | VENTAS | COSTO DE VENTAS | GASTOS OPERACIONALES | INVERSIÓN | EBIT | IMPUESTOS | FC | FC Acumulado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | $ - | $ - | $ - | -$883.107.481,22 | -$883.107.481,22 | -$883.107.481,22 | -$883.107.481,22 | |
| 1 | 1 | $1.058.812.447,56 | $841.155.021,57 | $23.174.425,34 | $194.483.000,64 | $68.069.050,23 | $126.413.950,42 | -$756.693.530,80 | |
| 1 | 2 | $1.058.812.447,56 | $847.740.683,52 | $23.174.425,34 | $187.897.338,69 | $65.764.068,54 | $122.133.270,15 | -$634.560.260,65 | |
| 1 | 3 | $1.058.812.447,56 | $854.278.406,18 | $23.174.425,34 | $181.359.616,04 | $63.475.865,61 | $117.883.750,42 | -$516.676.510,23 | |
| 1 | 4 | $1.058.812.447,56 | $862.194.383,83 | $23.174.425,34 | $173.443.638,38 | $60.705.273,43 | $112.738.364,95 | -$403.938.145,28 | |
| 1 | 5 | $1.058.812.447,56 | $869.658.933,04 | $23.174.425,34 | $165.979.089,18 | $58.092.681,21 | $107.886.407,97 | -$296.051.737,31 | |
| 1 | 6 | $1.058.812.447,56 | $877.596.882,87 | $23.174.425,34 | $158.041.139,34 | $55.314.398,77 | $102.726.740,57 | -$193.324.996,74 | |
| 1 | 7 | $1.058.812.447,56 | $885.263.176,65 | $23.174.425,34 | $150.374.845,56 | $52.631.195,95 | $97.743.649,62 | -$95.581.347,12 | |
| 1 | 8 | $1.058.812.447,56 | $893.754.425,96 | $23.174.425,34 | $141.883.596,25 | $49.659.258,69 | $92.224.337,56 | -$3.357.009,56 | |
| 1 | 9 | $1.058.812.447,56 | $901.806.231,64 | $23.174.425,34 | $133.831.790,57 | $46.841.126,70 | $86.990.663,87 | $83.633.654,31 | |
| 1 | 10 | $1.058.812.447,56 | $909.216.849,13 | $23.174.425,34 | $126.421.173,08 | $44.247.410,58 | $82.173.762,50 | $165.807.416,81 | |
| 1 | 11 | $1.058.812.447,56 | $918.317.327,10 | $23.174.425,34 | $117.320.695,11 | $41.062.243,29 | $76.258.451,82 | $242.065.868,63 | |
| 1 | 12 | $1.058.812.447,56 | $927.142.154,07 | $23.174.425,34 | -$36.570.610,41 | $71.925.257,73 | $25.173.840,21 | $46.751.417,52 | $288.817.286,16 |
| 2 | 1 | $1.508.524.248,88 | $1.193.451.906,86 | $25.517.827,20 | $289.554.514,82 | $101.344.080,19 | $188.210.434,63 | $477.027.720,79 | |
| 2 | 2 | $1.508.524.248,88 | $1.203.809.982,33 | $25.517.827,20 | $279.196.439,34 | $97.718.753,77 | $181.477.685,57 | $658.505.406,36 | |
| 2 | 3 | $1.508.524.248,88 | $1.213.944.044,38 | $25.517.827,20 | $269.062.377,30 | $94.171.832,05 | $174.890.545,24 | $833.395.951,61 | |
| 2 | 4 | $1.508.524.248,88 | $1.226.066.225,61 | $25.517.827,20 | $256.940.196,07 | $89.929.068,62 | $167.011.127,44 | $1.000.407.079,05 | |
| 2 | 5 | $1.508.524.248,88 | $1.237.577.461,12 | $25.517.827,20 | $245.428.960,56 | $85.900.136,19 | $159.528.824,36 | $1.159.935.903,41 | |
| 2 | 6 | $1.508.524.248,88 | $1.249.793.829,81 | $25.517.827,20 | $233.212.591,86 | $81.624.407,15 | $151.588.184,71 | $1.311.524.088,12 | |
| 2 | 7 | $1.508.524.248,88 | $1.261.625.811,82 | $25.517.827,20 | $221.380.609,85 | $77.483.213,45 | $143.897.396,40 | $1.455.421.484,53 | |
| 2 | 8 | $1.508.524.248,88 | $1.274.618.590,69 | $25.517.827,20 | $208.387.830,98 | $72.935.740,84 | $135.452.090,14 | $1.590.873.574,66 | |
| 2 | 9 | $1.508.524.248,88 | $1.287.079.337,67 | $25.517.827,20 | $195.927.084,00 | $68.574.479,40 | $127.352.604,60 | $1.718.226.179,27 | |
| 2 | 10 | $1.508.524.248,88 | $1.298.679.669,44 | $25.517.827,20 | $184.326.752,24 | $64.514.363,28 | $119.812.388,96 | $1.838.038.568,22 | |
| 2 | 11 | $1.508.524.248,88 | $1.312.553.228,38 | $25.517.827,20 | $170.453.193,30 | $59.658.617,65 | $110.794.575,64 | $1.948.833.143,87 | |
| 2 | 12 | $1.508.524.248,88 | $1.326.042.400,64 | $25.517.827,20 | -$36.570.610,41 | $120.393.410,62 | $42.137.693,72 | $78.255.716,90 | $2.027.088.860,77 |
| 3 | 1 | $2.103.717.002,84 | $1.657.387.750,30 | $27.507.411,20 | $418.821.841,35 | $146.587.644,47 | $272.234.196,88 | $2.299.323.057,65 | |
| 3 | 2 | $2.103.717.002,84 | $1.673.133.451,75 | $27.507.411,20 | $403.076.139,89 | $141.076.648,96 | $261.999.490,93 | $2.561.322.548,58 | |
| 3 | 3 | $2.103.717.002,84 | $1.688.891.744,73 | $27.507.411,20 | $387.317.846,91 | $135.561.246,42 | $251.756.600,49 | $2.813.079.149,07 | |
| 3 | 4 | $2.103.717.002,84 | $1.706.888.181,20 | $27.507.411,20 | $369.321.410,45 | $129.262.493,66 | $240.058.916,79 | $3.053.138.065,86 | |
| 3 | 5 | $2.103.717.002,84 | $1.724.078.760,10 | $27.507.411,20 | $352.130.831,55 | $123.245.791,04 | $228.885.040,51 | $3.282.023.106,37 | |
| 3 | 6 | $2.103.717.002,84 | $1.742.289.252,48 | $27.507.411,20 | $333.920.339,16 | $116.872.118,71 | $217.048.220,46 | $3.499.071.326,82 | |
| 3 | 7 | $2.103.717.002,84 | $1.759.970.900,84 | $27.507.411,20 | $316.238.690,81 | $110.683.541,78 | $205.555.149,03 | $3.704.626.475,85 | |
| 3 | 8 | $2.103.717.002,84 | $1.779.245.377,05 | $27.507.411,20 | $296.964.214,60 | $103.937.475,11 | $193.026.739,49 | $3.897.653.215,34 | |
| 3 | 9 | $2.103.717.002,84 | $1.797.912.312,20 | $27.507.411,20 | $278.297.279,45 | $97.404.047,81 | $180.893.231,64 | $4.078.546.446,98 | |
| 3 | 10 | $2.103.717.002,84 | $1.815.446.010,14 | $27.507.411,20 | $260.763.581,51 | $91.267.253,53 | $169.496.327,98 | $4.248.042.774,96 | |
| 3 | 11 | $2.103.717.002,84 | $1.835.967.047,28 | $27.507.411,20 | $240.242.544,37 | $84.084.890,53 | $156.157.653,84 | $4.404.200.428,79 | |
| 3 | 12 | $2.103.717.002,84 | $1.855.959.240,39 | $27.507.411,20 | -$36.570.610,41 | $183.679.740,85 | $64.287.909,30 | $119.391.831,55 | $4.523.592.260,34 |
| 4 | 1 | $2.904.739.636,77 | $2.280.753.254,08 | $29.699.841,54 | $594.286.541,16 | $208.000.289,41 | $386.286.251,75 | $4.909.878.512,10 | |
| 4 | 2 | $2.904.739.636,77 | $2.304.104.305,77 | $29.699.841,54 | $570.935.489,46 | $199.827.421,31 | $371.108.068,15 | $5.280.986.580,25 | |
| 4 | 3 | $2.904.739.636,77 | $2.326.472.356,60 | $29.699.841,54 | $548.567.438,63 | $191.998.603,52 | $356.568.835,11 | $5.637.555.415,36 | |
| 4 | 4 | $2.904.739.636,77 | $2.352.749.461,46 | $29.699.841,54 | $522.290.333,77 | $182.801.616,82 | $339.488.716,95 | $5.977.044.132,31 | |
| 4 | 5 | $2.904.739.636,77 | $2.377.967.067,33 | $29.699.841,54 | $497.072.727,90 | $173.975.454,77 | $323.097.273,14 | $6.300.141.405,45 | |
| 4 | 6 | $2.904.739.636,77 | $2.404.638.137,52 | $29.699.841,54 | $470.401.657,72 | $164.640.580,20 | $305.761.077,52 | $6.605.902.482,97 | |
| 4 | 7 | $2.904.739.636,77 | $2.430.590.125,36 | $29.699.841,54 | $444.449.669,88 | $155.557.384,46 | $288.892.285,42 | $6.894.794.768,39 | |
| 4 | 8 | $2.904.739.636,77 | $2.458.707.010,04 | $29.699.841,54 | $416.332.785,19 | $145.716.474,82 | $270.616.310,37 | $7.165.411.078,76 | |
| 4 | 9 | $2.904.739.636,77 | $2.486.150.711,26 | $29.699.841,54 | $388.889.083,98 | $136.111.179,39 | $252.777.904,58 | $7.418.188.983,35 | |
| 4 | 10 | $2.904.739.636,77 | $2.512.133.298,35 | $29.699.841,54 | $362.906.496,89 | $127.017.273,91 | $235.889.222,98 | $7.654.078.206,32 | |
| 4 | 11 | $2.904.739.636,77 | $2.541.994.340,21 | $29.699.841,54 | $333.045.455,02 | $116.565.909,26 | $216.479.545,76 | $7.870.557.752,09 | |
| 4 | 12 | $2.904.739.636,77 | $2.571.136.299,74 | $29.699.841,54 | -$36.570.610,41 | $267.332.885,09 | $93.566.509,78 | $173.766.375,31 | $8.044.324.127,40 |
| 5 | 1 | $3.972.297.678,41 | $3.107.853.071,38 | $32.725.733,25 | $831.718.873,78 | $291.101.605,82 | $540.617.267,96 | $8.584.941.395,35 | |
| 5 | 2 | $3.972.297.678,41 | $3.141.967.949,61 | $32.725.733,25 | $797.603.995,55 | $279.161.398,44 | $518.442.597,11 | $9.103.383.992,46 | |
| 5 | 3 | $3.972.297.678,41 | $3.174.401.526,76 | $32.725.733,25 | $765.170.418,40 | $267.809.646,44 | $497.360.771,96 | $9.600.744.764,42 | |
| 5 | 4 | $3.972.297.678,41 | $3.212.226.232,39 | $32.725.733,25 | $727.345.712,77 | $254.570.999,47 | $472.774.713,30 | $10.073.519.477,72 | |
| 5 | 5 | $3.972.297.678,41 | $3.248.675.743,37 | $32.725.733,25 | $690.896.201,79 | $241.813.670,63 | $449.082.531,16 | $10.522.602.008,88 | |
| 5 | 6 | $3.972.297.678,41 | $3.287.172.055,68 | $32.725.733,25 | $652.399.889,48 | $228.339.961,32 | $424.059.928,16 | $10.946.661.937,05 | |
| 5 | 7 | $3.972.297.678,41 | $3.324.699.792,36 | $32.725.733,25 | $614.872.152,80 | $215.205.253,48 | $399.666.899,32 | $11.346.328.836,37 | |
| 5 | 8 | $3.972.297.678,41 | $3.365.146.962,17 | $32.725.733,25 | $574.424.982,99 | $201.048.744,05 | $373.376.238,94 | $11.719.705.075,31 | |
| 5 | 9 | $3.972.297.678,41 | $3.404.899.681,54 | $32.725.733,25 | $534.672.263,62 | $187.135.292,27 | $347.536.971,35 | $12.067.242.046,66 | |
| 5 | 10 | $3.972.297.678,41 | $3.442.770.074,69 | $32.725.733,25 | $496.801.870,47 | $173.880.654,66 | $322.921.215,80 | $12.390.163.262,46 | |
| 5 | 11 | $3.972.297.678,41 | $3.485.634.114,81 | $32.725.733,25 | $453.937.830,35 | $158.878.240,62 | $295.059.589,73 | $12.685.222.852,19 | |
| 5 | 12 | $3.972.297.678,41 | $3.527.529.579,31 | $32.725.733,25 | -$36.570.610,41 | $375.471.755,44 | $131.415.114,40 | $244.056.641,04 | $12.929.279.493,23 |
Indicadores de viabilidad económica
Indicadores económicos
El Costo Promedio Ponderado de Capital (WACC) se determinó con la siguiente formula:
WACC = (E / (E + D)) × Re + (D / (E + D)) × Rd × (1 - T)
Donde:
- E = Valor del capital propio de la empresa = $1.324.661.222
- D = Valor de la deuda = $883.107.481
- Re = Rentabilidad esperada del capital propio = 10,00%
- Rd = Tasa de interés de la deuda = 15,00%
- T = Tasa impositiva = 35,00%
De acuerdo con los anteriores valores tenemos que:
WACC = Costo promedio ponderado de capital = 9,90%
| INDICADOR | VALOR | DESCRIPCIÓN |
|---|---|---|
| VPN | $ 431.522.558 | El Valor Presente Neto positivo (VPN > 0) indica que el proyecto es financieramente viable, ya que genera valor adicional sobre el costo de capital. |
| TIR | 14% | La Tasa Interna de Retorno (TIR) superior al costo de capital (WACC) confirma que el proyecto es rentable, con un rendimiento mayor al mínimo esperado por los inversionistas. |
| PAYBACK | 8,04 | Es el tiempo necesario para recuperar la inversión inicial a través de los flujos netos de caja generados por el proyecto. En este caso, el retorno se logra en 8,04 meses. |
| ROI | 1364% | El Retorno sobre la Inversión (ROI) muestra que por cada peso invertido, se generaron 13,64 pesos de utilidad neta, lo que representa un retorno excepcional. |
| ROI anual | 71% | El ROI anual busca normalizar el ROI total en una base anual, facilitando la comparación con otras inversiones en el tiempo. |
| IR | 1,49 | La Relación Beneficio/Costo (Índice de Rentabilidad) mayor a 1 indica que el valor presente de los ingresos supera el de los costos, lo que hace al proyecto atractivo y rentable. |
| Margen de utilidad | 15,33% | Significa que por cada $100 de ventas, la empresa retiene $15.33 como ganancia neta después de cubrir todos sus costos. |
Módulo 4
Links
Documentación y recursos del módulo.